Author: Barry Wain, ISEAS

Malaysians expressed a collective sigh of relief when Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim was acquitted of sodomy charges in early January.Their groan of dismay over the prosecution’s subsequent decision to appeal was equally palpable.

For most Malaysians, despite being divided in their opinions of Anwar, the acquittal marked a chance to move away from the sleazy politics that has long dominated daily life. Now, they expect more of the same. Aware of public exasperation, Prime Minister Najib Razak was quick to seize on the not guilty verdict as proof of his ‘reformist’ agenda and Malaysia’s supposedly independent judiciary. But the appeal leaves him stranded, inclined to delay calling a general election, and acutely aware that he is under threat as much from within his own ranks as from the opposition. It seems likely that Najib will win the next election, but unless he scores big — which seems unlikely — his leadership could be at risk.

The old guard in Najib’s United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the core of the Barisan Nasional coalition government, has been trying to have Anwar convicted of sexual misconduct for more than 13 years. His first sodomy trial in the late 1990s was regarded as a miscarriage of justice, and the recently completed second trial was just as dubious, according to international legal and human rights organisations. Kuala Lumpur has a thriving gay club scene and nightlife, and the police — to their credit — do not hound homosexuals. But Anwar was hauled into court twice on a charge of ‘carnal intercourse against the order of nature’, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years imprisonment.

The government’s deliberate targeting of Anwar is obvious. His arrest in 2008 came soon after he led a revitalised opposition to unprecedented gains in a general election, depriving the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional of its usual two-thirds majority in parliament. Subsequently, Anwar has spent much of the past three years caught up defending himself in the sodomy trial, when he might have otherwise engaged in consolidating the opposition coalition.

Despite, or perhaps because of, these efforts, the trial has become a liability for Najib. The value in distracting Anwar and trying to knock him out politically has been offset by the damage to Najib’s reputation as a putative reformer. Conscious that the long-term electoral trend is running against the ruling coalition, which has held power since independence in 1957, Najib has positioned himself as an agent of change, who is in touch with Malaysia’s younger generation. He has attempted to roll back unpopular elements of an affirmative action program designed to benefit the country’s majority ethnic Malay community, liberalise press restrictions and replace controversial security laws, including detention without trial. Still, Najib is yet to convert the rhetoric of reform into reality, which he must do to win back the alienated centre of Malaysian politics, where cynicism and anger run deep.

Najib is encountering entrenched opposition within UMNO, particularly from conservatives who favour continued Malay privileges and the flow of patronage to the party faithful. These older UMNO Malays and their supporters in the business world and bureaucracy — especially the police and prosecutors — strongly objected to Anwar being freed and lobbied hard and successfully for the appeal. In the end, Najib will lose the most. It seems he failed to stand up to these factions — again — and lost the public relations gains from Anwar’s acquittal.

The loss of the momentum that Anwar’s freedom initially gave Najib may persuade him to wait until later this year to call an election, which must be held by March 2013. Najib must gamble that the electoral climate will improve by this time. But the economy could slow and more political scandals could emerge — rampant corruption involving UMNO politicians has already hurt his government.

Free to campaign, Anwar will lift the spirits of the three-party opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition. But he is looking and sounding tired, and his own People’s Justice Party is rife with factionalism and squabbling. Although Anwar said recently: ‘My gut tells me we will win [the election]’, most analysts believe he will fall short, even if not by much.

While the opposition will surely live to fight another day, Najib may not have it so easy, even if he wins. Only the recovery of a two-thirds parliamentary majority will ensure his continued leadership of UMNO and Malaysia. Failing this, Najib could face pressure to step aside if he loses more seats, a fate that befell Abdullah Badawi, his predecessor.

Barry Wain is Writer-in-Residence at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.

Merujuk kepada komen Fuad Zakarshi (UM & BH 8 Februari 2012) yang mencadangkan agar saya ditarbiyah semula atas sebab enggan memberi komen terhadap Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim atas isu negara Israel. Ia sesuatu yang jelas tersesat.

Saya amat kesal atas pemikiran sekular seorang timbalan menteri juga bekas seorang guru Yayasan Anda di bawah bumbung ABIM yang dikatakan pernah menyokong kepimpinan Anwar Ibrahim kelihatan begitu dungu dalam menilai mana satu yang benar dan mana pula yang salah.

Sepatutnya sebagai seorang yang pernah mengagumi Anwar Ibrahim dan pernah duduk sebumbung Yayasan Anda/Markaz ABIM sepatutnya sudah tahu permainan kotor media tajaan Barat (WSJ) itu yang kerjanya untuk menjatuh kredibliti seorang yang tidak sebulu dengan Israel.

Begitu juga akhbar Barat dan pro-Barat juga yang acapkali mengulang-ulang kes liwat (menuduh Anwar) atas sebab untuk memalukan hamba Allah ini.

Apakah hak Fuad Zakarshi mencadang saya ditarbiyah semula? Sedang beliau sendiri sudah dilihat gagal memahami prinsip tarbiyah. Kalau benar dia memahami tarbiyah, masakan boleh membuat respon atas fakta yang diputar oleh WSJ, hantu media Barat yang sentiasa bertindak untuk memecah belah umat Islam. Logikkah saya mengulas atas fakta yang belum pasti benar kerana ia bukan dari sumber pertama.

Sebaiknya Fuad dapat berjumpa sendiri Anwar jika benar ingin mencari pencerahan. Kerana Anwar pernah jadi ketuanya.

Justeru adalah sesuai kalau dia ingin mencari kebenaran, baik sahaja pergi beribadat di masjid. Tapi bagi seorang yang mendokong ideologi kebangsaan sekular, sudah tentu tidak sesuai mencari kebenaran di masjid.

Saya cadangkan lebih baik mencari kebenaran di bilik tandas. Kerana dalam tandas sudah tentu sesuai––banyak syaitan dan iblis yang boleh merangsang fikirannya––menjadi waras selari dengan otak sekular.

Maka, tak payahlah asak dan menyibuk untuk mentarbiyah semula orang lain. Kerana asas tarbiyah itu hendaklah dipaksikan dengan keredahaan Allah.

Mana ada hak bagi manusia seumpama Fuad Zakarshi untuk mentarbiyah orang lain, sedangkan dia sendiri sedang menganut ideologi yang bercanggah dengan keredhaan Allah SWT.

Pengarah strategi PKR, Rafizi Ramli berkata, kenyataan Menteri Pertanian, Datuk Seri Noh Omar yang mempertahankan National Feedlot Corporation di Parlimen menjadi titik penting dalam isu berkenaan.

Selepas kenyataan itulah, beliau menerima satu salinan buku tunai berhubung projek fidlot tersebut melalui e-mel, kata Rafizi dalam satu wawancara dengan Malaysiakini minggu lalu.

Katanya, serangan PKR sebelum itu hanyalah berhubung
pengunegarahan projek kepada anggota keluarga menteri, Datuk Seri Shahrizat Abdul Jalil, yang tidak mempunyai pengalaman dalam bidang ternakan lembu.

Isu utama yang ditonjolkan PKR sebelum itu juga melibatkan prestasi projek berkenaan yang menurutnya tidak mencapai sasaran.

“Jika Noh Omar (kiri) tidak pergi ke Parlimen dan kata 8,000 lebih
lembu itu satu kejayaan nasional, (isu itu) mungkin mati di situ saja,” katanya.

Selepas kenyataan Noh Omar pada awal November itu, Rafizi berkata kemudiannya menerima salinan penyata yang menyenaraikan bayaran tunai itu daripada seorang yang tidak dikenalinya.

“NFC berkeras untuk mengetahui siapakah pemberi maklumat itu kerana mereka tidak mahu pendedahan lanjut.

“Tapi daripada cara email itu ditulis, (saya tahu pemberi maklumat itu) bukanlah kartel (daging) atau pekerja yang tidak puas hati,” katanya yang tidak mengenali individu berkenaan.

Sebaik sahaja beliau menerima buku tunai itu, Rafizi berkata, beliau kemudiannya menyemak senarai berkenaan untuk mengesan pembayaran yang diragui.

“Bayaran untuk kondominium, dan juga kepada pemaju hartanah mewah tidak… masuk akal dengan syarikat seperti itu,” katanya.

Selepas itulah PKR mengetahui mengenai pembelian hartanah, termasuk kondominium mewah di Bangsar, Kuala Lumpur.

“Kita sudah tahu perkara ini apabila kita mendapat buku tunai itu tetapi kita turun (untuk periksa). Saya rasa kami ambil masa
dua hingga tiga minggu sebelum sidang akhbar pertama untuk mendedahkannya.”

Katanya, 50 peratus daripada usaha itu merupakan kerja-kerja yang dijalankan untuk mengesahkan pembelian tersebut, termasuk melawat sendiri hartanah tersebut dan juga membuat semakan melalui sumber awam.

“Jadi 15-20 peratus lagi itu sebenarnya mengikut naluri dan risiko yang kami ambil… kerana jika anda mahu dapatkan dokumen lengkap, saya tidak fikir anda akan dapat apa-apa,” katanya.

Pengarah strategi PKR Rafizi Ramli berkata, kali pertama beliau mendengar mengenai National Feedlot Corporation (NFC) bukanlah melalui laporan Ketua Audit Negara tetapi melalui majalah gaya hidup masyarakat kelas tinggi – Malaysia Tatler.

“Sangat glamour,” fikirnya apabila melihat anggota keluarga
Menteri Pembangunan Wanita, Datuk Seri Shahrizat Abdul Jalil ditampilkan dalam majalah berkenaan sekitar empat atau lima tahun lalu.

Keluarga menteri itu nampaknya seronok dengan perhatian seperti itu, kata Rafizi lagi dalam wawancara dengan Malaysiakini minggu lalu.

Beliau berkata demikian apabila ditanya sekiranya projek National Feedlot Centre yang diusahakan syarikat berkenaan merupakan satu projek ‘gajah putih.’

Rafizi ditanya demikian susulan dakwaannya bahawa projek itu ditakdirkan untuk gagal sejak awal lagi.

“Jika ia merupakan satu projek gajah putih, yang mereka tahu sebagai satu sabotaj kepada mereka, saya tidak fikir mereka akan berseronok dengan glamour…,” katanya lagi.

Beliau juga mendakwa, keluarga menteri itu sejak awal lagi mengetahui bahawa projek ternakan lembu itu tidak akan berjaya.

“Tapi saya fikir mereka tahu sejak awal lagi bahawa untuk mencapai sasaran 276,000 ekor lembu setahun adalah mustahil dan sebab itulah saya fikir mereka menghabiskan banyak masa membuat perkara lain,” katanya.

Rafizi mendakwa projek NFC itu hanyalah satu “samaran”, sedangkan suami dan anak-anak menteri berkenaan menggunakan pinjaman RM250 juta itu sebagai modal untuk perniagaan yang lebih “glamour” seperti pelaburan hartanah dan juga kedai makan kelas tinggi.

“Jadi apabila anda dapat orang yang mendapatkan kontrak dan pembiayaan bukan untuk tujuan sebenar dasar tersebut, tentulah ia ditakdirkan gagal sejak awal lagi,” katanya.

Beliau juga mendakwa, keluarga menteri itu telah menggunakan kawalan mereka ke atas pinjaman mudah RM250 juta yang diberikan kerajaan itu untuk perniagaan lain.

Akauntan berkanun itu memberi alasan mudah – walaupun
seseorang itu tidak dilantik sebagai pemegang saham dalam sesuatu syarikat, individu berkenaan boleh membuktikan bahawa mereka mempunyai kawalan ke atas dana yang besar seperti pinjaman RM250 juta dari kerajaan.

“…Itu saja sudah cukup sebagai jaminan kepada bank untuk memberikan anda pinjaman untuk membeli begitu banyak hartanah,” dakwanya.

Rafizi juga sangsi dengan kenyataan yang diberikan oleh salah seorang anak Shahrizat – Wan Shahinur Izmir Salleh – ketika menafikan dakwaan bahawa beliau serta anggota keluarganya rakus membelanjakan pinjaman wang tersebut.

Wan Shahinur antara lainnya berkata dakwaan itu tidak
munasabah kerana keluarganya masih perlu membayar pinjaman tersebut.

Rafizi yang melihat isu tersebut dari sudut akauntabiliti berkata, penjelasan itu tidak sah di sisi undang-undang.

“Saya setuju jika setiap orang (pemilik National Feedlot Corporation) meletakkan jaminan peribadi ke atas pinjaman RM250 juta, letakkan semua aset atas nama mereka sebagai cagaran kepada RM250 juta itu, barulah kita bercakap dengan masuk akal sedikit,” katanya.

Tanpa akauntabiliti seperti itu, kata Rafizi, tindakan yang dapat dijalankan hanyalah dengan menutup syarikat induk yang mengawal NFC – Agroscience Industries Sdn Bhd yang juga dimiliki keluarga menteri berkenaan.

Wan Shahinur juga sebelum ini telah mengemukakan hujah bahawa langkah menubuhkan syarikat pengedar untuk daging dan juga rangkaian restoran mewah Meatworks dibuat untuk menyokong pusat ternakan fidlot itu.

Penjelasan itu dicabar oleh Rafizi yang berkata, kerajaan dan
syarikat NFC sendiri tidak mempunyai hak ke atas dua anak syarikat tersebut – National Livestock dan Meat Corporation dan Real Food Company – yang telah menerima pemindahan wang daripada syarikat NFC.

National Livestock and Meat Corporation bertanggungjawab mengeluarkan produk lembu daripada daging tersebut dan Real Food Company pula mengedarkan produk berkenaan, selain menguruskan rangkaian restoran mewah Meatworks.

“Anda tanya sesiapa saja dalam syarikat runcitan, bukan saja dalam (industri) daging. Mereka tidak tubuhkan begitu banyak operasi (tapi) mungkin hanya satu bahagian atau seksyen pemasaran di dalam syarikat itu.

“Tapi yang paling penting, anda tidak boleh bercakap mengenai membina rangkaian pengedaran produk lembu seperti didakwa, apabila mereka tiada lembu.

“Anda perlu ada jumlah lembu yang perlu sebelum anda boleh mula buat (perkara ini),” katanya.

By Imtiyaz Yusuf

Non-separation between religion and politics in Islam is best understood within the frame of religious unity but political diversity in the Muslim world.

The Koran, while offering religious, socio-economic and political principles, does not provide a single model for it. Colonial rulers tried to implement separation between religion and politics in the colonised Muslim world by placing religion under the jurisdiction of the rajas, kings and sultans, or by establishing ministries of religious affairs and the office of the mufti – an official interpreter of Islamic religious law. But they did not succeed in separating religion and politics in Muslim societies. Hence, today we see the diverse roles Islam plays in the politics of different Muslim countries.

The post-colonial era also saw attempts by different Muslim political leaders and parties to democratise political practice during different authoritarian regimes. The political roles and sacrifices made by Nurcholish Madjid and Gus Dur (Indonesia), Anwar Ibrahim (Malaysia) and Rachid Ghannouchi (Tunisia) in this endeavour are significant examples.

Nurcholish Madjid (d. 2005) was an Indonesian Muslim modernist whose career as a scholar and activist started with his role in HMI – the Islamic Association of University Students in Indonesia. As a young Muslim activist during the authoritarian rules of Sukarno and Suharto, he realised that not much could be gained through Islamising the political system; rather, it would prove to be an obstacle. Hence, he proposed an “Islam yes, Islamic party no” strategy. For Madjid, Islam was not merely a political campaign but also a civilisational mission that is educational and cultural, embodying religious pluralism and democracy. As a leader of the reformasi movement in 1998, Madjid personally asked Suharto to step down, thus ending his 27 years of dictatorship.

Gus Dur or Abdurrahman Wahid (d. 2009) was a democrat and pluralist who offered an alternative model of Islamist political activity. He modernised the traditional Indonesian Muslim organisation, the Nahdatul Ulama (NU), in the areas of education and political theology. He contributed towards the formation of “Civil Islam” in Indonesia. Wahid was elected as the first president of post-Suharto Indonesia. The most important legacy of Gus Dur today is his commitment to reform, modernisation and democracy.

Wahid held the conviction that Indonesia’s stability should be rooted in the principle of unity in diversity and open politics, leading to the success of democracy in a Muslim majority country. He once remarked, “I am for an Indonesian society, not just an Islamic one.” He believed that what mattered was not the question of whether there is scriptural compatibility between Islam and democracy, but whether Muslims have a political intent, ambition and capacity for democracy. He partnered Nurcholish Madjid in opposing the autocratic regime of Suharto. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has called Wahid a “father of multiculturalism and pluralism”.

As president, Gus Dur lifted the ban on the public use of the Chinese language, the practice of Chinese cultural tradition, and made the celebration of the Chinese New Year a national holiday, all of which were barred by Suharto. Wahid guaranteed full citizenship to ethnic Chinese in Indonesia. He also defended the religious freedom of Indonesian Christians. As president of Indonesia, Gus Dur received the Ahmaddiyah leader Mirza Tahir Ahmad, as his guest. Wahid defended the rights of the Ahmaddiyah to exist in Indonesia on the constitutional principle of freedom of religion. For Wahid, pluralism is not only an intellectual concept but a matter of practice. Wahid held that the koranic message of insaniyah – humanity – represents Islam’s universalism and respect for human rights and equality.

Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia, twice acquitted on sodomy charges, is another steadfast Muslim democrat. He has been imprisoned several times for upholding justice and equality. As an ardent democrat, he calls for religious and ethnic pluralism in Malaysia. He is a naturally evolved Muslim pluralist inspired by Islamic teaching and its humane values.

As a student leader, Anwar founded the Angkatan Belia Islam Malaysia (ABIM) – the Muslim Youth Movement – in 1971. As deputy prime minister, he proposed the philosophy of “Asian Renaissance” in 1996 as a means for the “development and flowering of Asian societies based on a certain vision of perfection; societies imbued with truth and the love of learning, justice and compassion; mutual respect and forbearance; and freedom with responsibility. Faith and religious practice is not confined to the individual; it permeates the life of the community.” Based on the teachings of Islam, Confucianism, Buddhism, Hinduism and Christianity, the Asian Renaissance holds that an Asian is essentially a persona religiosus.

Anwar is well read and an eloquent orator, with a creative mind. He is sincere to his faith and loyal to his country. He stands up for human rights and dignity, gender equality, democracy, good governance, acceptance of cultural diversity and sharing of common values. He is a citizen of the world.

Today, Anwar heads the multi-party opposition in Malaysia and calls for the equality of all Malaysians. In the last election, he upset the ruling UMNO’s dominance in the Malaysian parliament, and continues to pose a formidable challenge to it.

Rachid Ghannouchi, the leader of the Ennahdah Party in Tunisia, is a democrat within Islamism. Imprisoned twice for calling for political pluralism and economic justice during Ben Ali’s authoritarian Tunisia, he lived in exile for 22 years. As a major party in Tunisia today, Ennahdah has formed a national unity government instead of one dominated by itself. The aim is to move Tunisia towards democracy and development.

As an original Muslim thinker, Ghannouchi stands for the guarantee of personal freedoms and holds that gender equality, democracy and pluralism are compatible with Islam. He opposes religious extremism. He once remarked, “Freedom comes before Islam and is the step leading to Islam.” As a rationalist philosopher, Ghannouchi represent the aqalana – rationalist tradition – in Islamic thought, which upholds harmony between human reason and revelation.

Ghannouchi believes that Tunisia should be a religiously tolerant and pluralist society with gender equality. He is banned from entering Saudi Arabia and Iran because of his moderate views.

Contemporary Muslim democrats have lived under repressive regimes and have been imprisoned, but they remained undaunted by opposition to their convictions. The “Arab Spring” and other such events in the Muslim world are broad democratic and non-violent alliances made up of democrats, workers, youth, women and the subaltern who challenge authoritarian regimes. They seek good governance and not the establishment of theocratic governments.

Dr Imtiyaz Yusuf is professor of Islamics and religion at the Graduate School of Philosophy and Religion, Assumption University, Bangkok.

PKR’s Rafizi Ramli today demanded Datuk Seri Shahrizat Abdul Jalil prove she was not involved with the National Feedlot Corporation’s (NFCorp) operations, saying it was a matter of utmost public interest.

The PKR chief strategist charged that the Wanita Umno chief had not once refuted PKR’s allegations with concrete proof, and that her response so far had merely been “jokes” and jibes aimed at her detractors.

Rafizi (picture) was referring to Shahrizat’s latest comments on the issue yesterday, where she said she will send the Wanita Umno wing’s trademark red-and-white baju kurung to her “stalker” in PKR, whom she joked wanted to assume her post.

In an apparent reference to Rafizi, who has led PKR’s attacks on Shahrizat and the NFCorp, the federal minister said the idea had been mooted by Perak Wanita Umno at a recent meeting.

“She has not provided proof that she was not at all involved in the decision making that awarded the contract to become integrator to her family’s company, nor has she proven that she was not at all involved with the operations of NFC,” Rafizi said in a statement to The Malaysian Insider.

The PKR leader said that Shahrizat would be “guilty by association” if she was aware that federal funds meant for the cattle project were used for “other purposes” and did not the matter to the relevant ministry.

“If our scrutiny of her conduct she deems as a personal attack against her or Wanita Umno, clearly she does not understand the weight of accountability that she assumes as a senior minister.

“I will continue to dig for evidence of misappropriation and her complicity in such misappropriation no matter how many baju kurungs she wants to send me, because no prior scandal involving a minister’s complicity in a financial misconduct receives such interest from the public,” added Rafizi.

Shahrizat has been repeatedly linked to NFCorp because of her husband’s role as company chairman, and their children’s directorships in the same entity.

The RM250 million publicly-funded cattle-raising scheme was first coined a “mess” in an article in English daily The Star after it made it into the pages of the Attorney-General’s 2010 Report for badly missing production targets.

The term was later repeated by various media organisations to describe NFCorp after PKR launched a series of exposés to show that the project’s funds had been allegedly abused.

PKR, led by strategic director Rafizi, had claimed that RM27 million was used for land and property purchases as well as expenses unrelated to cattle farming by Shahrizat and her family.

The company’s assets were frozen after investigations were launched by the police and the national anti-graft body following the exposés.

Shahrizat returns to ministerial duties today after taking three weeks’ leave to allow the authorities to complete their probe.

The next General Election, the 13th, is widely expected to be called on paper between May this year and April/May next year when the five-year term of the present Parliament ends. The five-year term of Parliament is calculated from the first day of the first sitting of the first Parliament for the term/tenure.

Once Parliament is dissolved, elections would have to be held within two months.

However, if Parliament is not dissolved within its five-year term, it stands automatically dissolved at the end of that term. In that case, elections would have to be called within six months. This factor might be playing on Malaysian Prime Minister Mohd Najib Abdul Razak’s mind, desperate as he is to stretch out his term in office.

GE-13 can even be in second-half of 2013!

Najib seems to have come to the conclusion, albeit grudgingly, that there are no guarantees that he will be Prime Minister after GE 13. That may be the sole reason why his wife, Rosmah Majid, is forever off somewhere on shopping sprees if not hunting for a spot in exile at the expense of the people.

Whether Najib will be Opposition Leader and/or allowed to do so by his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin – rooting for a Mahathir dynasty — and Mahathir Mohamad himself is a RM 1.5 billion question.

Najib does not have a mandate of his own.

He continues to shamelessly ride on that obtained by his sacked predecessor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, in 2008. Mahathir was able to get rid of Badawi because the Umno Supreme Council members, corrupt beyond redemption, are in his pocket.

Najib should have obtained his own mandate by now but he fears, as he has never feared before in his cushy life so far, the prospect of testing the electoral waters on his own.

No Prime Minister has been that fearful in the history of the country. Najib just doesn’t have the guts to ignore Mahathir and his (Mahathir’s) Umno Supreme Council and call for the 13th GE and accept like a man whatever is in store for him. Neither has he the foresight to make a deal with the opposition alliance to accept his faction at least into their government-in-the-making and save the political dynasty built by his late father.

Too risky for BN to call GE-13 now

There are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies in politics, only permanent interests. That doesn’t mean the opposition alliance will accept Mahathir as well unless he agrees to flee the country for good and leave his ill-gotten gains behind.

There’s too much at stake to go for the GE 13 now and even go for it at all, not just for Najib who is not that big a factor, but Umno, the establishment and the entire system which stands at risks of being dismantled and many of its members incarcerated for very long stretches, if not for good.

This is one reason why the Prime Minister declared not so long ago that he can always do what his father, 2nd Prime Minister Abdul Razak, did in the wake of the searing race riots between the non-Malay communities and the Malay-speaking communities in Peninsular Malaysia in 1969. However, Najib was quick to add that he “would not do so”. But why mention it if he has no plans to do so? Was that a veiled threat to vote him back into power or else?

Najib was referring to the declaration of a state of emergency, the shutting down of Parliament, suspension of democracy, the shutting out of the political parties, and the setting up of the National Operations Council under Abdul Razak as Direction of Operations.

Abdul Razak also set up the National Consultative Council, with its members drawn from various walks of life but not the political parties, in lieu of the disbanded Parliament. He chaired the NCC.

Abdul Razak went on to form the Barisan Nasional, a concept which circumscribed the democratic process and denied the majority meaningful participation by endorsing elite power-sharing. The BN which was formed included the opposition parties which had made spectacular gains during the 1969 polls.

Emergency rule and forcing DAP to join BN

It will be a sheer miracle if Najib does not do what his father did in 1969/1970 considering his sudden morbid fear of going to the polls and especially with Mahathir breathing down his neck to achieve the impossible: get back the ruling Barisan Nasional’s (BN) coveted two-thirds majority in Parliament.

There are attempts being made to force the Dap to join the BN.

At the same time, Umno does not seem to reckon with the fact that its legislators will abandon Mahathir for good – notwithstanding his Big Black Book of Everyone’s Sins — and flee in droves to the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) after the 13th GE “in order to buy political protection and avoid a stint behind bars, if not bankruptcy and/or the prospect of being reduced suddenly to abject poverty”.

When that happens, Taib in Sarawak — notwithstanding his and his maternal Uncle Abdul Rahman Yakub’s Big Black Book of Everyone’s Sins — will become an instant turncoat, and will be among the first to fall down on his hands and knees shamelessly in Putrajaya and beg Anwar Ibrahim for forgiveness. Taib will sell anyone, even his recently dead mother whose funeral he didn’t attend, to get what he wants.

The Mahathir factor

Even Mahathir has now concluded that Najib will not be able to win back the two-thirds majority in Parliament, let alone win GE with a simple majority, and is urging that GE be further delayed.

Mahathir’s excuse for the delay is that Najib needs to win back the Chinese. How so? Accept the Dap?

What will Mahathir advise Najib next: declare a state of emergency to force Dap into a corner?

He didn’t mention the Indians who, although not have a single ethnic-majority seat in Malaysia, decide the winners in 67 of the Parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia.

Mahathir also did not mention the need for Taib Mahmud to win back the Chinese in Sarawak. There are seven Chinese parliamentary seats at stake are set to fall to the Pakatan Rakyat (PR), the opposition alliance.

East Malaysia

Sarawak itself would be an unmitigated disaster of sorts considering that the BN is not expected to do any better in Peninsular Malaysia than it did in 2008 and the fact that it cannot repeat its last performance in Sabah.

In the Land Below the Wind, the assessment among the opposition is that it can take 40 seats in the state assembly i.e. 18 non-Muslim Dusun – including Kadazan or urban Dusun and Murut – 16 Muslim seats including Dusun Muslim and eight Chinese seats.

This will translate into at least 20 seats in Parliament and coupled with the seven Chinese Parliamentary seats in neighbouring Sarawak, the opposition alliance will have a rich haul of 27 seats in the next Parliament from Malaysian Borneo. This assumes that the opposition, in a worst case scenario, will not win any Dayak or Malay parliamentary seats in Sarawak.

The spoiler in all this is the Sabah Progressive Party (Sapp) which is determined to go for the 40 state seats – the same seats expected to be won by the opposition — in Sabah.

In return, they are prepared to allow the opposition to contest the other 20 – and unwinnable – state seats at stake in Sabah and also allow them to contest the majority of the 25 Parliament seats in the state. Labuan provides another seat in Parliament.

It’s difficult to get over the feeling that Sapp is in cahoots with Umno to sink the opposition’s chances in Sabah.

Electoral reforms

Najib has previously cited the need for ensuring that electoral reforms are in place before calling for GE 13. We must wonder what is his interpretation and understanding of electoral reforms if not doing something to favour his electoral chances.

The issue of electoral reforms only arose because the opposition pointed out that the electoral process was not free and fair. After the so-called electoral reforms now supposed to be underway, elections will be even less free and fair to the opposition under some cosmetics changes to give some semblance of being even-handed. It’s a numbers game.

Najib had also mentioned not so long ago that he wants his GTP (Government Transformation Programme), ETP (Economic Transformation Programme), KPI (Key Performance Index) to be all in place before elections can be called.

All these are cosmetics and gimmicks on paper. His latest desperate gamble, instead of introducing real reforms, is to keeping throwing public money, but only on paper, at problems to buy voter support: new salaries for the already bloated and underworked civil service of 1.4 million; RM 100 each for school children; RM 500 each for those households earning less than RM 3,000 per month; some measly funds, again on paper, for Hindu temples even as they are demolished, Tamil schools, mission schools, Chinese interests and the like.

Inevitable Umno will lose power

God alone knows where all this is leading in the weeks and months ahead. We should all get down on our hands and knees and start praying for our country.

It’s pay back time for all the evil that has been perpetrated during the last half a century and more of rule by those who stepped into the power vacuum created in the country when the colonial British authorities departed for good.

However, order can only come from chaos. It was Dr Stephen Hawking, the famed University of Cambridge physicist, who reminded us that the only predictable property of the universe is chaos.

Malaysia will not be under Umno and BN forever. The country cannot be an oasis of peace, progress and stability forever given the gross injustices being perpetrated in the country by the powers-that-be.

All things, whether good or bad, – ugly, beautiful or evil – must come to an end one way or other. There’s no escaping karma – the scientific law of cause and effect – which is neutral but is perceived in the human mind as good, bad, ugly, beautiful or evil.

It’s only those who can accept his or her karma that can neutralise it. The same goes for nations and political parties, especially Umno, who has had far too good for the past 55 years.

Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Anwar Ibrahim are ideological allies who try to get together as often as they can.

In the last four weeks, both have sought each other’s company twice, the first when Anwar flew to Istanbul via Bombay after his acquittal on a charge of sodomy on Jan 9.

On Friday, the two leaders got together again in Istanbul, at the Dolmabache Palace which lies on the European coastline of the Bosphorus, the sea that separates Europe and Asia.

The Malaysian opposition leader and his wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, the president of PKR, had a private chat with Erdogan during which Anwar urged the Turkish leader to continue supporting the Arab Spring, and push for sanctions against Syria while keeping the rights of the Palestinians on the front burner.

In centuries past, Istanbul was on the fault line between contending cultures and civilisations, notably Christian and Islamic ones.

Through Anwar and Erdogan’s collaboration, the search for consonances between hitherto contending cultures and civilisations would be emphasised.

Yesterday, Anwar held forth on the theme to an audience of Turkish civil servants and politicians from Erdogan’s party at Dolmabache Palace.

His aim was to fortify them in the belief that Islam is compatible with what the thinker Francis Fukuyama had predicted after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 as the spirit of the times: liberal democracy.

It’s a tough act to bring off, there having been no resilient democratic governance in the Muslim world until the Turks put Erdogan and his Justice and Welfare Party in power and Suharto’s overthrow brought the democracy-favouring Abdulrahman Wahid and Bambang Yudhoyono to power in Indonesia.

Under Erdogan’s premiership, constitutional reforms in Turkey to expand the rights of women and the minorities, and the continuance of democratic reform in Indonesia have strengthened the hope that Muslim-dominant polities need not wind up being despotic and corrupt.

Transition to democracy irreversible

In his speech at Dolmabache Palace on the theme of ‘Democracy and Islam’, Anwar praised Erdogan’s leadership which he claimed advanced the cause of constitutional democracy in the Muslim world.

“Justice is highly valued in Islam and any Muslim-majority state that adheres to the rule of law cannot but incorporate this value in its governance,” said Anwar.

“If the legitimacy of a ruler is derived from the people, then the justness of that rule is of paramount importance,” he claimed.

Anwar said the era of one-man and one-party rule is irrevocably over in the Muslim world.

“The transition to constitutional democracy is irreversible. The countries in the Islamic crescent from the Mediterranean to the Bosphorus must embrace this transition or be swept aside by this great awakening,” he claimed.

He predicted that Southeast Asia, where he said there were still holdouts against the currents sweeping the Arab world, would soon join the deluge.

“It’s just a matter of time before the torrents of the Arab Spring would be loosed on Southeast Asia. More dynasties and autocracies of old will be swept away and in their place new found freedoms and democracies will spring forth,” said Anwar.

Also present in the PKR delegation, which called on the Turkish foreign and finance ministers for briefings, were deputy president Azmin Ali and secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution.