By Tan Yi Liang and Karen Arukesamy (theSun)
PETALING JAYA (Aug 28, 2008) : Tuesday’s thumping win by Parti Keadilan Rakyat de-facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was due to his party’s ability to win over the fence-sitters, political analysts say.
Wong Chin Huat, a journalism lecturer of Monash University Malaysia who is doing a PhD thesis on electoral systems and party politics, told theSun that Anwar had “solidly captured the middle ground” to win in Permatang Pauh.
“In Malaysian politics, you have the both the BN and Opposition parties controlling 30% of the hardcore base vote, and the 40% in the middle will determine victory, and in Permatang Pauh, he (Anwar) solidly captured 70%.”
He pointed out that the landslide victory was proof of the failure of Barisan’s tactics to deny Anwar Permatang Pauh.
“There were two things that turned off voters in the recent by-elections. One was the sodomy allegations, and the other was the playing up of racial sentiments. The twin attacks on Anwar did not hold water; they actually backfired.”
He said the support given to Anwar by senior Pas leadership was also a determining factor in his victory.
On the sodomy allegation, a replay of the one in 1998 which had failed, and on the challenge to swear on the Quran, Anwar was supported by religious figures such as PAS’s Datuk Nik Aziz and Datuk Harun Din who debunked the necessity or even appropriateness of swearing on the Quran, said Wong.
He also said BN’s divided messages to Malay and non-Malay voters had also contributed to their defeat.
“With regards to why Anwar gained Chinese support, despite a BN candidate fluent in Chinese, the Chinese saw the message over the candidate. BN tried to play a divide-and-rule game by portraying (Datuk) Arif Shah (Omar Shah) as a pro-Chinese candidate on one hand, while attacking Anwar as a Malay traitor,” said Wong.
He cited an incident where a leaflet was circulated calling on the Malays to reject the DAP-led government in Penang, with an image of a pig’s head placed next to the heads of Kit Siang and Karpal. This did not go down well with Chinese voters.
“So no matter how proficient Arif Shah was at Hokkien or Mandarin, it would not have helped,” said Wong, who pointed out that Umno’s exploitation of the UiTM issue raised by Selangor Mentri Besar Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim had also contributed to alienating Chinese support.
Wong said the consistency in the messages from Anwar were also major factors in his big win.
“Anwar has been consistent in his message for change, to free the country from racial politics and corruption and that message has gone down well across communities. The key factor was that people were frustrated with the status quo, with BN politics and just wanted a change,” said Wong.
Assistant professor of Southeast Asian studies, Bridget Welsh, of Johns Hopkins University credited Tuesday’s big win to a fundamental desire by Malaysians to “see changes in how their government governs.”
There are three things that matter — corruption, inclusion and respect.
She said Malaysians are tired of being talked down to, and that the Barisan government now “faces a problem of credibility.”
“No one believes in BN like they did before, and there is a lack of trust in BN leaders. Umno has remained in a state of denial since March 8.”
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) political scientist Associate Prof Dr Mohammad Agus Yusoff attributed BN’s dismal performance to its failure to learn from the last general election results.
He said the BN government could not accept the fact that people were no more vulnerable and could not be easily swayed by whatever was dished out through some mainstream newspapers.
“The people are becoming more and more politically informed, thanks to the alternative media.
They are insulting the intellectual voters by trying to use the media to play up their stories. The BN government’s thinking gap is far from the people’s. Their campaign strategy is a failure. It is too out-dated and it is just not working.”
He said BN should stop using the same old strategy.
Agus said the the vote swing to the Opposition was probably due to the rakyat feeeling that BN had failed them.
“The people want something but the BN gives a different thing. Those who believed that the BN government would do something to change their lives are probab;y upset,” he said.
“The ruling party could not answer or respond to all the questions put forth by Opposition leaders. Anwar’s promise of a new hope for Malaysia has somehow convinced many, even some strong BN supporters,” Agus said.
“BN has also lost the confidence of the Malays and non-Malays, especially among the middle class group. It failed to understand the people’s grievances and that is how they become silent voters.
“I am not denying that the BN government has contributed a lot in the past . But the present leadership has failed to address the rakyat’s grievances.
“It needs to rebuild the confidence of the people in BN and its image. Stop all personal attacks on the Opposition and show more transparency,” said Agus.
SEPT 16 HERE WE COME
they wont understand all these explaination………….they are so backword………maybe if u swear on something holy then they will actually believe that they lost…….
They will never never get it. I prefer to be told that the dead can arise than AMNO reforming itself.
Barisan Nasional - Your time is up.
Malaysia is getting tired of your lies, your excuses, your incompetence, arrogance and your ignorance….
Malaysian society has changed. Issues have changed. In the business world, we would see a destructive change and companies makeover. In countries that are dynamic and evolving like Malaysia, the same phenomenon will happen. In each of this maekover phase, the market in the case of business, or the society as a whole will settle on a leader to champion this change.
For better or for worse, Malaysian as a whole has settled on Anwar Ibrahim as the leader of this charge. The Internet played a big role in Malaysia in settling this leadership role. Of course many people including Anwar played their role. But without a substantial portion of the rakyat settling the leadership decision, the Tsunami will not be possible.
In the Silicon Valley, there is a theory on the making of the 500 pound gorilla of the industry.
The strategists of PKR, DAP and Pakatan must work hard and smart to cenvert this start into the 500 pound political gorrila.
SEBAB BN KALAH DI PERMATANG PAUH DAN BAKAL DIKALAHKAN.
1. PAH LAK - ALAHAI ! SEDIH BETOI AKU NAK SEBUT PASAI ORANG TUA NI ! TAK LAYAK BAGI AKU KALU PUN DIA NAK KATA, “AKU MAKAN GARAM DULU DARIPADA HANGPA !” TAK LAYAK ! TAK LAYAK ! DAH CECAH TARIKH LUPUT ! FAHAM-FAHAM LE APA PATUT BUAT.
2, NAJIB - SEGI MORAL, BILA BERADU GAN ANWAR DI P44, DIA YANG JADI KEPALA BN KAT SITU TETIBA KALAH ! MAKA TERANG LAGI BERSULUH, LAHABAU NI PUN SATU PROBLEM GAK. KATEGORI MENGABIHKAN BOGHEH !IBARAT BARANG KAT RAK, SEKOR NIH MACAM TIN SUSU KARAT. TOLAK MASUK TONG SAMPAH JE. TIDAK PUN HANTAR BALIK KAT PEMBEKAL ! CERITA NAJIB NI BELUM LAGI MASUK BAB2 LAIN. MALEH DEN NAK SEBUT !
3. KJ - HA ! HA ! HA ! KO NI JANG ! ADUUUH ! MUKA TAK HANDSOME KO TU, TIBO2 JADI KAYA MELANA ! INI PUNCA MUKA KO ORANG MELUAT SANGAT2, KO TAU TAK ? KO INGAT LAGI CERITA ORANG KOPILAH TU ? “ALAH…POYI PILAH TAK SOSEK, NI LAK KOLOMPO !” KO INGAT LAI CERITA BAGANG TU KAN, KJ ?! ORANG TU SEBAR2NYA KJ, ADUUUH…SEANGKATAN PANDIR GAN KO !ABANG2 DLM UMNO PATUT BUAT SESUATU LE SEBELUM TERLAMBAT. TOLONGLAH…..!
4. BN PATUT2 JADI JAGA JE TAPI BELAGAK TAUKEY !TAUKEY SENDIRI PUN MENUMPANG KAT MAHA TAUKEY. NAK MAMPOS ? LAIN DISURUH LAIN YANG KO BUAT !DAH TU AMEK NAFSU JADI TUHAN. MAUNYE TAK SOSEK !YANG MERAH KATA HIJAU, YANG HIJAU BILANG KUNING. HABIH SEMUA BERCELARU, CONFUSE ! ORANG2 BN SENDIRI PUN DAH CONFUSE GAN KEPALA2 GELONG DORANG NIH ! SEBAB TU AKU CADANG, BAGI PELUANG ORANG LAIN LE PERINTAH ! GENTLEMAN LA…..!
5, BN NI KALU IBARATKAN SORANG BAPA, DIA UMPAMA BAPA JENIS GILA NAK KAWIN LEBIH ! DIA BUKAN AMEK KESAH HAL KEHENDAK & KEPERLUAN ANAK BINI. DIA SYOK SENDIRI PLUS TAK BERTANGGUNG JAWAB. DUIT HABIH KAT BETINA YANG DIGILA2NYA, YANG LEBIH SIKIT2 TU JEH BARU RASA NAK CAMPAK KAT ANAK BINI ! ITU PUN BERAT RASA TANGAN NAK LEPAS. INI BUKAN CERITA BARU, BANG !
6. SEGI ADAB, MORAL, SIVIK, TATASUSILA, DISIPLIN & SOPAN SESUNGGUHNYA MUFLIS DALAM BN. MEREKA SENDIRI MELETAK TEMBOK DARIPADA AWAM. MANIS MUKA HANYA KETIKA MENAGIH UNDI ITU PUN DENGAN PENUH BERPURA2 ! CARA KEJE BUAT LAGI2 LE ! CUBO KORONG TENGOK DALAM P44 ITU HARI !
7. DUIT MENJADIKAN OTAK MEREKA BEKU & LUPA SIAPA SEBENARNYA MEREKA. LUPA TUHAN,LUPA AMANAH, LUPA MATI, LUPA KEADILAN YANG MAHA ADIL !FIRAUN YANG LEBIH HEBAT DARI KORANG PUN MAMPOS ! KORANG JANGAN LUPA !
8. BANYAK LAGI. MALEH AKU !
Sokong bangAbu…!!!
tadi masa sambutan merdeka kat dataran
kwn2 semua ckp:
kita layak ngundi sok, ‘hai2 bye2 la umno’
kami benci, meluat tgok muka sekor2 kat atas pentas tu
anwar ko ni tak adilah…mesti ada orang caci ko dalam blog ni tapi ko tak siar pun..semuanye puji ko je.ko punya dendam merugikan bangsa ko sendiri.ko mungkin boleh menang tapi ko hanya menjadi ketua yang membawa bencana,kemusnahan,penderitaan pada kaum ko sendiri.hari ni ko naik penuh bergaya tapi satu hari ko juga akan jatuh dengan penuh keji.yang akan menjatuhkan engkau bukanya para pemimpin tapi rakyat ko sendiri dari bangsa ko sendiri.rakyat ko yang mana ko pernah api apikan kebencian.merekalah yang akan mengigit ko kerana ko telah memeperdayakan mereka untuk mengadaikan negara sendiri.