ANALYSIS
AUG 5 — Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will win the Permatang Pauh by-election by a mile. And Pakatan Rakyat could end up snaring more seats if snap elections were held soon.
This scenario is not far-fetched judging by findings of a recent survey which debunks the notion that there is widespread remorse bias among Malaysians for supporting the Opposition in Election 2008.
Indeed, the poll shows that the sentiment towards Pakatan Rakyat has strengthened since March 8, especially among Chinese and Indians voters. The comprehensive survey on political developments in the country saw more than 3,000 people being interviewed last month.
Just over 31 per cent of those polled said that their view of the Opposition has remained the same since March 8 while 36.7 per cent said that their view of the Opposition has improved.
Only 22 per cent of respondents gave the Opposition the thumbs down. The Malaysian Insider sighted the poll findings which confirm that the seismic shift in the political landscape was not a flash in the pan but the result of deep dissatisfaction with the Barisan Nasional and the path the country was taking. Also, it shows a country that has become even more polarised along political, racial and religious lines since the general election.
On March 8, the Opposition alliance of Pas-PKR-DAP denied Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and the ruling coalition its customary two-thirds majority in Parliament and took control of Perak, Kedah, Penang and Selangor. This outcome surprised political pundits who believed that it was a fluke, the unintended consequence of Malaysians wanting to register a protest vote.
In the months since then newspapers have carried reports based on anecdotal evidence to suggest that Malaysians have little confidence in the Opposition and were regretting their decision to vote for Pakatan Rakyat candidates on March 8. In a column in the New Straits Times, group editor Syed Nadzri put forward five reasons why Anwar could lose the by-election in Permatang Pauh. He listed reason No. 5 as voter sentiment.
“It cannot be denied that the ground has shifted much since March 8 with a change in state government and, with that, political leaning. It cannot be denied too that some of the policy changes instituted by the DAP-led Penang administration have not gone down well with at least some of the 58,449 registered voters in Permatang Pauh, 69.4 per cent of whom are Malays, 24.5 per cent Chinese and 5.7 per cent Indians.”
“BN is expected to capitalise on this to the core.”
Clearly, the survey on political developments in Malaysia shows that the non-Malay support for the Opposition is intact and may have strengthened since Election 2008. More than 45 per cent of Chinese polled said their view of the Opposition has improved while 33.9 per cent said the perception has remained the same. Only 8 per cent said that their view of Opposition has deteriorated.
The pattern was the same with the Indians. Just under 5 per cent of Indians said that their opinion of the Opposition had suffered since March 8.
Fifty-five per cent of Malays felt that their opinion of the Opposition was the same or had improved since Election 2008. With this sentiment, Anwar will be the overwhelming favourite to return to Parliament, regardless of who the BN fields in Permatang Pauh.
For he will be preaching to a larger pool of believers — Malaysians.
Courtesy of Malaysian Insider
GOOD LUCK!
I Can’t Wait to see your Victory, DSAI….May God Bless You..
Based on calculations, of 58,449 registered voters in Permatang Pauh, 69.4 per cent of whom are Malays, 24.5 per cent Chinese and 5.7 per cent Indians, expected results with current issues prevalent is, if u are counting by racial composition :-
Parlimen Permatang Pauh, voters to vote KeADILan candidate (PKR) Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim:
no. of indians votes = 5%
no. of chinese votes = 24%
no. of malay votes = 50%
no. of others (siamese, permanent residents etc..) voters = ???
Total votes = 79% to PKR, wins KeADILan candidate (PKR) Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim, InsyaAllah, Amin
Previous records election victory: election 1999 = PKR, 2004 = PKR & 2008 = PKR
Last record election 2008, PKR = approx. 30,000 votes , opposition = approx. 16,000 votes
But, PKR, do not be complacent, campaigns shud be more vigorous to achieve better election results, InsyaAllah, Amin
Saya pun takut juga kalau perkara seperti ini berlaku sebelum waktu pengundian nanti.
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Pilihanraya kecil di Permatang Pauh nanti bakal menjadi pilihanraya yang paling kotor dalam sejarah Malaysia. Menurut sumber yang berada diâ€dalam†parti pemerintah, misi utama BN hanyalah untuk mengurangkan majoriti kemenangan di Permatang Pauh.
Pada PRU 12 yang lalu, Dr. Wan Azizah menewaskan calon BN dengan majoriti 13,388.
Kerja-kerja jahat akan dilakukan bagi memastikan Anwar Ibrahim menang dengan majoriti yang rendah. Jika majoriti berkurangan satu undi sekalipun, BN akan mengatakan bahawa Anwar sudah tidak lagi popular dikawasannya.
Sumber dalaman tersebut memberitahu, agen-agen BN sudah berada dikawasan Permatang Pauh untuk melaksanakan kerja-kerja jahat ini. Bagi setiap satu undi, agen-agen ini akan membayar RM 1000.
Kepada pengundi di Permatang Pauh, jika ada agen-agen BN datang dan memberi duit, ambil duitnya. Tetapi undilah calon yang anda mahukan. Pemberi wang tersebut tidak tahu siapa yang anda undi kerana “UNDI ADALAH RAHSIAâ€.
Dan bagi penduduk Permatang Pauh yang terlihat akan kejadian pembelian undi, sila rakamkan dengan kamera, video atau gunakan telefon bimbit yang mempunyai kemudahan kamera dan video. Jika ada bukti pembelian undi dilakukan, boleh hubungi saya melalui email di amin.iskandar@gmail.com.
Kita akan dedahkan segala penipuan pilihanraya ke peringkat nasional dan antarabangsa!!!
http://aminiskandar.wordpress.com/2008/08/03/rm1000-untuk-satu-pengundi-untuk-kurangkan-majoriti/
Fairdinkum ,
whatever the figures might be the coming results at Permatang Pauh will be the greatest fall of umno & bn in their living days and that’s no bulldust.
Dear DSAI and Pakatan Rakyat,
I sincerely hope that PR should start seeking for independant and calibre politic advisor to lay out the blue print for the future of Malaysia. I am saying here that there is no genious in PR but more often than not, we are always blinded we our own lense if we don’t engage external party and seek thier independant opinion.
Malaysia politic senario is very complicated due to the polarisation of the community, hence we need highly intelligent leader that are not only able to serve the people but to far sighted enough to uplift the competiveness of the nation with the challenge of the globalisation. BN in the last 6 year had failed miserabily because of unwillingness to take in independant advisor. Nevertheless, we should take this as a challenge and should look into how to foster the strenght of different community to bring Malaysia to the next level. We Malaysia in fact is a blessing country if we look at it positively because of our unique multi-racial community.
Lastly, please do not just rush to grab power and form new government if there is still no strong foundation, good future policy and most important is the principle of understanding from the 3 party. We all want change but change for better.
Sorry correction of the 2nd line which I actually meant “I am not saying that” not I am saying that
KALAU DSAI DITANGKAP ATAU TERTANGKAP, PASTI 100% NEGARA MALAYSIA AKAN JADI HURU HARA.
RAKYAT PASTI AKAN MEMBERONTAK.
BALAI POLIS AKAN DI BAKAR.
MAHKAMAH AKAN DISERBU DAN DIBAKAR.
POLIS AKAN DIBUNUH.
HARTA BENDA HABIS JAHANAM.
PM DAN SELURUH PEMIMPIN DAN MENTERI AKAN DI TANGKAP DAN DISEKSA.
JANGAN INGAT RAKYAT TAK ADA KUASA.
JANGAN INGAT RAKYAT BERDIAM DIRI.
JANGAN INGAT RAKYAT TAKUT.
INSYA ALLAH, PERKARA DI ATAS AKAN BERLAKU KELAK.
SAYA BERDOA AGAR ALLAH SWT AMPUN KAN UMATYNYA YANG ZALIM DAN BUKA KAN PINTU HATI UNTUK BERTAUBAT.
AMIN
ASSALAMUALAIKUM DSAI,DTGNAA,SAUDARAKU SEISLAM DAN SALAMSEJAHTERA SAHABATKU RAKYAT MALAYSIA,ALHAMDULILLAH,INSHAALLAH DENGAN NAMA ALLAH YANG MAHA PEMURAH DAN PENGASIH SERTA MAHA BERKUASA DIATAS SESUATU INSHAALLAH PEMIMPIN2 YANG BERIMAN DAN MEMPERJUANGKAN KEBENARAN,KEADILAN DAN KEBAJIKAN RAKYAT DENGAN IKHLAS KERANA ALLAH,INSHAALLAH ALLAH AKAN PERMUDAHKAN SEGALA PERJUANGAN DAN USAHA JUGA DI BERKATI OLEHNYA,AMIN.
i agree with thinkwisely suggestion.
GOOD LUCK … we want Anwar enter parliament to fight back our rights
Kalau DSAI dipenjarakan, sokongan terhadap dia akan bertambah…kerana rakyat bersimpati dgn dia yg pernah dilayan tidak adil oleh pihak kerajaan.
Eventhough most of us think that PR will win easily in Pematang Pauh by election, we should not over react or feel totally confidence about it.
Most of us knew that BN has got a lot of tricks up their sleeves and they’re trying every ways, including dirty ones, to win it.
What I meant to say is that every PR member should be very vigilant during the polling days and do keep an eye on every move there.
Do bring camera phones along and snap every pictures as evidence to counter any mischief or fraud.
Most important is to trail the ballot boxes, when they’re being transport back to the counting center to avoid being change and do check every vehicle before those boxes are loaded in.
As to those who are being offered RM1000 to buy their votes.
Please do remember that RM1000 will not supplement the cost of what they’re gonna suffer for several years to come.
Think wisely, Think about the future!!!
See what happened to Troy, Helen brought it down to its knees. Thus it just takes a man to either make or break a nation. Let’s hope DSAI is able to make this nation and bring back its glory and glamour.